COVID-19 Working Paper 03/20
Suborna Barua
Release date: 30 April 2020
The corresponding full paper by Suborna Barua is now in publication consideration by a journal and will soon be available as a working paper.
Abstract
The rapidly globalized COVID-19 pandemic is set to bring major social and economic disorders globally. As a cure or treatment is yet unavailable, social distancing is considered as the key to fighting the disease, which however comes with social and economic cost. This paper examines global social distancing patterns using daily Google mobility data for six categories of community places covering 128 countries across from 15 February to 11 April 2020, and highlights the likely social and economic effects of the pandemic and related social distancing measures. Analysis of mobility data at the world, regional, and economic levels show somewhat similar patterns across regions. However, a widening divergence is evident between mobility trends in residential places and that in outdoor places in almost all regions. US-Canada and the EU show a slow beginning of the diffusion and divergence of mobility patterns, while Latin America and the Caribbean and Central America and Mexico show consistent and desired mobility changes across all categories. Across economic levels, developed economies in general appear to better ensure social distancing, reflected by relatively less volatile mobility patterns. Given the global patterns, the paper presents a DAMAGE channel based on the literature through which social distancing generates and transmits social effects. Finally, based on a theoretical mapping of the likely implications of COVID-19 and social distancing, the paper argues that countries are in the verge of seeing long-lasting social and economic disorders. The paper concludes that social and economic effects combined could eventually result in a deep social collapse in a country, if both fronts of the implications are not mitigated with timely and innovative measures.
Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, social distancing, society & economy, mobility
JEL: E0, I1, I3, Z13
[1] Suborna Barua, PhD is Assistant Professor at the Department of International Business, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh, and the Coordinator of OBOR Research Group - an Australia-based research group; the author is thankful to Al Amni Sabbir and Farjana Nasrin for their tireless assistance in this work.
[2] The author will be very happy to receive comments, suggestions, or observations on this draft at sbarua.du@gmail.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment