Socio-economic implications of COVID-19 and social
distancing: Early insights from global data
The corresponding full paper by Suborna Barua is now in publication consideration with a journal and will soon be available as a working paper.
Abstract
The
rapidly globalized COVID-19 pandemic is set to bring major social and economic
disorders globally. As a cure or treatment is yet unavailable, social
distancing is considered as the key to fighting the disease, which however comes
with social and economic cost. This paper examines global social distancing
patterns using daily Google mobility data for six categories of community
places covering 128 countries across from 15 February to 11 April 2020, and
highlights the likely social and economic effects of the pandemic and related social
distancing measures. Analysis of mobility data at the world, regional, and
economic levels show somewhat similar patterns across regions. However, a widening
divergence is evident between mobility trends in residential places and that in
outdoor places in almost all regions. US-Canada and the EU show a slow
beginning of the diffusion and divergence of mobility patterns, while Latin
America and the Caribbean and Central America and Mexico show consistent and
desired mobility changes across all categories. Across economic levels,
developed economies in general appear to better ensure social distancing,
reflected by relatively less volatile mobility patterns. Given the global
patterns, the paper presents a DAMAGE channel based on the literature through
which social distancing generates and transmits social effects. Finally, based
on a theoretical mapping of the likely implications of COVID-19 and social
distancing, the paper argues that countries are in the verge of seeing long-lasting
social and economic disorders. The paper concludes that social and economic
effects combined could eventually result in a deep social collapse in a country,
if both fronts of the implications are not mitigated with timely and innovative
measures.
Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, social
distancing, society & economy, mobility
JEL: E0, I1, I3, Z13
[1] Suborna Barua, PhD is Assistant Professor at the Department of International Business, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh, and the Coordinator of OBOR Research Group - an Australia-based research group; the author is thankful to Al Amni Sabbir and Farjana Nasrin for their tireless assistance in this work.
[2] The author will be very happy to receive comments, suggestions, or observations on this draft at sbarua.du@gmail.com.
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