Socio-economic implications of COVID-19 and social distancing: Early insights from global data

Socio-economic implications of COVID-19 and social distancing: Early insights from global data

Suborna Barua

Release date: 30 April 2020

The corresponding full paper by Suborna Barua is now in publication consideration with a journal and will soon be available as a working paper.

Abstract

The rapidly globalized COVID-19 pandemic is set to bring major social and economic disorders globally. As a cure or treatment is yet unavailable, social distancing is considered as the key to fighting the disease, which however comes with social and economic cost. This paper examines global social distancing patterns using daily Google mobility data for six categories of community places covering 128 countries across from 15 February to 11 April 2020, and highlights the likely social and economic effects of the pandemic and related social distancing measures. Analysis of mobility data at the world, regional, and economic levels show somewhat similar patterns across regions. However, a widening divergence is evident between mobility trends in residential places and that in outdoor places in almost all regions. US-Canada and the EU show a slow beginning of the diffusion and divergence of mobility patterns, while Latin America and the Caribbean and Central America and Mexico show consistent and desired mobility changes across all categories. Across economic levels, developed economies in general appear to better ensure social distancing, reflected by relatively less volatile mobility patterns. Given the global patterns, the paper presents a DAMAGE channel based on the literature through which social distancing generates and transmits social effects. Finally, based on a theoretical mapping of the likely implications of COVID-19 and social distancing, the paper argues that countries are in the verge of seeing long-lasting social and economic disorders. The paper concludes that social and economic effects combined could eventually result in a deep social collapse in a country, if both fronts of the implications are not mitigated with timely and innovative measures.

Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, social distancing, society & economy, mobility

JEL: E0, I1, I3, Z13

[1] Suborna Barua, PhD is Assistant Professor at the Department of International Business, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh, and the Coordinator of OBOR Research Group - an Australia-based research group; the author is thankful to Al Amni Sabbir and Farjana Nasrin for their tireless assistance in this work.

[2] The author will be very happy to receive comments, suggestions, or observations on this draft at sbarua.du@gmail.com.

COVID-19 pandemic and world trade: Some analytical notes

COVID-19 pandemic and world trade: Some analytical notes

 Suborna Barua[1]

Release date: 1 April 2020

The corresponding full paper by Suborna Barua is available as a working paper.

Abstract

The globalization of COVID-19 pandemic is en route to produce severe economic impacts worldwide through distortions in global trade and supply chain. The globalized production and supply chain shocks originating from China generate substantial threat to world trade. The aim of this paper is to provide an early broad-based understanding of the likely trade implications of the pandemic. The paper begins with a standard trade analysis framework to explain the implications for world trade. The paper then presents a theoretical mapping that shows the likely progression and span of world trade implications and reviews evidence available so far in the context of the mapping. The paper also presents a separate assessment on the likely implications particularly for trade between China and the rest of the world; followed by some key policy considerations. The paper concludes that the pandemic is likely to not only introduce new patterns of world trade but also affect trade relations, competition, and globalization, making some economies winners and some losers. Given the scarcity of scholarly work on COVID-19’s trade implications, the paper contributes by offering a novel broad-based understanding, which could serve as a basis for advanced analysis. Assessments of the paper could help stakeholders in preparing for a new world order of international trade.

Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, coronanomics, globalization, trade

JEL codes: F10, F13, F02, F42

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[1]Suborna Barua, PhD is Assistant Professor at the Department of International Business, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh, and the Coordinator of OBOR Research Group - an Australia-based research platform.

Understanding Coronanomics: The economic implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic

Understanding Coronanomics: The economic implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic

Suborna Barua

Release date: 1 April 2020

The corresponding full paper by Suborna Barua is available as a working paper.

Abstract

The globalization of COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts is set to run havoc across all economies in the world, throwing many into recession and possibly economic depression. As the numbers of infected and death cases rise sharply and recovery from the pandemic remains uncertain even in developed countries, evidence of shocks across economies including China, the Europe, and the US are already emerging. The aim of this paper is to provide an overall understanding of the likely macroeconomic shocks of the pandemic, covering economic activities or areas including demand, supply, supply chain, trade, investment, price level, exchange rates, and financial stability and risk, economic growth, and international cooperation. The paper first presents a general and theoretical mapping of the likely macroeconomic impacts of the pandemic on an affected economy and then reviews the emerging evidence in relation to the impact mapping to understand the nature of the impacts. The paper then illustrates the likely impacts using a standard macroeconomic AD-AS model and outlines some necessary features that needs to be considered while designing policy responses by governments and international institutions in mitigating the economic shocks. Assessments of this paper are broadly in line with the limited studies available on the economics of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, coronanomics, pandemic, economic impacts

JEL codes: F40, I15, E1, E6

The full working paper is available at: https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=3566477

[1] Suborna Barua, PhD is Assistant Professor at the Department of International Business, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh, and the Coordinator of OBOR Research Group - an Australia-based research group; the author is thankful to Al Amni Sabbir and Farjana Nasrin for their tireless assistance in this work.

[2] The manuscript is under development and the current version is the first draft. All errors and omissions belong to the author and will be corrected in the next version of the manuscript. The author will be very happy to receive comments, suggestions, or observations on this draft at sbarua.du@gmail.com.

Copyright(c): Suborna Barua